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September 20, 2004
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #41-50
I think it's about time we get started with the **No Pepper** Top 50 rankings, don't you? In the first entry, I will be looking at players ranked #41-50, plus an extra ten that are worth keeping an eye on. I will follow that up with another ten each day this week, until we reach the top ten on Friday.
One question to answer right out of the gate is how do I determine my prospect rankings? Well, since I do not have the opportunity to see many of these players in person, I have to rely on statistics to tell the story. Many fans accept statistical analysis as a way of analyzing player performance, while others believe that you have to see the players in person to fully grasp what they are capable of. While the obvious best answer is a combination of the above, I unfortunately don't have the freedom to get out and see these players like I wish I did, so I rely on statistics, news articles, the internet, and word of mouth from people in the know when formulating an opinion on a player.
It is a fact that past minor league performance is a good indicator of future major league success. It takes all of the stats to paint a complete picture, but some of the first ones I look at are OPS, K/BB ratio, extra base hits, and secondary average for hitters, and K/BB, K/9, and H/9 for pitchers. When looking at an individual players stats, it is crucial to place them in context of two things: age relative to league, and comparison to league averages. I place high importance on both of these things. I also want to see improvement from year to year as the player makes his way through the system.
I think you could argue players listed 1-20 within a few spots of their ranking either way, depending on what you are looking for in a prospect. From 21-50 it's a different story, and I think there could be widely varying opinions on where some of these players should rank. I welcome all of your comments and email, so please let me know your feedback on this list by either posting in the comments section below each entry, or sending an email to nopepper AT cox DOT net.
Now, on to the show.....
41. J.C. Holt, 2b
Selected in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft, Holt stepped right into the Danville lineup in July once LSU finished up it's College World Series action. Mostly a center fielder in his final season with the Tigers, Holt was taken as a second basemen by the Braves and played there nearly exclusively for Danville (51 games at 2b, 2 at SS), committing just four errors on the season. He provided a solid presence at the top of the lineup, posting a .321/.377/.407 line with 17 steals (5 CS). His .321 AVG was good for 6th best in the Appy, and tied for 4th in the league in stolen bases. Between Martin Prado and Holt, the Braves have two solid second base prospects. We'll have to wait and see who establishes themselves as the top dog over the next couple of seasons.
42. Josh Burrus, of
Finally, the former Braves number one pick has started to show some improvement, but he still has a long way to go. Burrus stroked 11 homers and 30 doubles en route to a .272/.330/.410 season, but his paltry 123/33 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired. He did lead Rome in runs scored with 82, and total bases with 206, but he is going to have to become much more selective at the plate - especially if he continues to be used in the leadoff spot - to further improve his stock.
43. Carl Loadenthal, of
Loadenthal is another college product who found success at Danville in 2004. He excelled at the plate, posting a .305/.388/.439 season with an impressive 34/32 K/BB ratio. His 60 runs were good for tops in the Appy, and his 73 hits placed him third in the league. An All-Star selection in both of his first two years, Loadenthal shoots for a third next season - most likely in Rome.
44. JoJo Reyes, lhp
Reyes started his professional career with a bang for Orlando in 2003 - good enough in fact to jump him right over Danville and land him at Low-A Rome to start the 2004 season. He was inconsistent from the get go, sometimes getting knocked around, other times plowing right through the lineup. His control was solid (71/25 K/BB in 74.1 IP), but he just didn't miss enough bats (84 H, 10 HR). The season would end on a bad note for Reyes, as a DL stint in July revealed that he had a torn ligament in his elbow and would need Tommy John surgery to correct the tear. Look for Reyes to miss most, if not all of the 2005 season.
45. Carlos Duran, of
Duran had an extraordinarily poor 2003 season for Myrtle Beach, forcing him to repeat the circuit in 2004. A wrist injury sidelined him at the beginning of the year, but once he was inserted into the lineup, he played like a man possessed. By the end of the season though, the real Carlos Duran came to light. He finished up the season hitting .261/.295/.372 in 234 at-bats, with seven doubles, five triples, three homers, and a paltry 47/12 K/BB ratio. Has was effective on the base paths, swiping 13 bases in 14 attempts, so he's got that going for him, which is nice, but it's going to take more that to vault him up the prospect chart in this system. Lump him in with Josh Burrus and Onil Joseph and hope one of the three will turn into a true prospect.
46. Miguel Bernard, c
After seven years in the organization, the last five stateside, Bernard is finally starting to make some noise. He started off the season slow in Rome, but went on a mid-season tear to earn a promotion to Myrtle Beach. He struggled a bit at The Beach (.197/.288/.282 in 71 AB), but his earlier numbers at State Federal Field showed some potential (.277/.326/.471, 10 HR, 18 2B in 278 AB). That being said, Bernard will be 24 when next season rolls around, and is basically at the same level as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so he will always be fighting for playing time.
47. Dan Smith, lhp
Used mostly as a reliever (he did start three games this season - two in Danville, one in Rome), the 6'5" lefty continued to bring the heat at a strong clip for the D-Braves in 2004. He fanned 52 in 39.2 innings of work, walking 16 in the process, and allowing just 24 hits. That was good for a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a ridiculous .174 opponent batting average. Not bad for an NDFA signing, huh?
48. Paul Bacot, rhp
After an impressive start to his professional career in Orlando in 2003, the second round draft pick continued his good work for Danville in 2004. Bacot posted an ERA of 4.70 in 61.1 IP for the D-Braves, which obviously leaves a bit to be desired, but the rest of his peripherals were decent - 60 hits, 38 strikeouts, and 14 walks, with a 1.21 WHIP. Look for Bacot to take the next step in his development next year in Rome.
49. Cole Armstrong, c
The 2003 16th rounder saw minimal at-bats in the GCL last season, with only a .118 average to show for it. 2004 was a different story for the Canadian backstop though, hitting .316/.411/.471 in 174 at-bats for Danville. His 46 RBI put him second on the team behind only Mark Jurich, but the most impressive part of his campaign was the great plate discipline he displayed - 17 strikeouts against 29 walks. A left handed hitting catcher with a good eye? :drool: One thing to keep in mind though - he is six months older than Brian McCann.
50. Maximiliano Ramirez, 3b
In last year's Top 50, I had six players from the Orlando roster making the cut - Stevens, Atilano, Bacot, Saltalamacchia, Doetsch, and Loadenthal. This year, only Maxi makes the list, but that is not to say there isn't some solid, projectable talent from the GCL squad, such as Eric Campbell, Jon Mark Owings, James Parr, and Glen Richards. I think it is more a testament to the depth of this organization that it is actually tough to stop this list at 50, when some organizations likely start to separate the wheat from the chaff at around 25.
Ramirez was signed out of Venezuela as an NDFA in 2002 and was on one of the organizations Dominican Summer League teams in 2003. He made his stateside debut this season in the GCL, hitting .275/.339/.480 in 204 at-bats as a 19 year-old. His eight homers were second best in the league, and he led the team in SLG, OPS, ISO, SEC, doubles, RBI, total bases, and games played. His 2.63 K/BB ratio is by no means hideous, but there is always room for improvement. He also made 10 errors in 42 games at the hot corner. Look for him to start next season in Danville.
The Next Ten
I'd love to squeeze every player I wanted to into the top 50, but the cut needed to be made at some point. Listed below are several players I have just outside the top 50, but are certainly worth watching (Listed in alphabetical order):
Ryan Basner, rhp -- Nice work out of the pen for Myrtle Beach. Needs to miss a few more bats (73 H in 58 2/3 IP), but K/BB ratio of 63/9 is borderline ridiculous.
Eric Campbell, 3b -- The 2004 second rounder performed well in his first professional action. .251/.306/.384 with seven homers and seven doubles for Orlando. Campbell also got in a few games for Rome at the end of the season.
Dan Curtis, rhp -- Curtis was a tough one to leave off the list, but I tend to undervalue relievers on the whole. He was decent for Greenville this season, but I'm not sure what the future holds.
Carlos Guzman, 1b -- Guzman did ok in his first season at first base. He started the season slow at the plate, but came around to finish at .252/.348/.468 with 13 homers and 26 RBI. He also fanned a lot, but not near as much as some of his teammates.
Matt Harrison, lhp -- Showed excellent command (49 SO, 10 BB in 66 IP) in a loaded Danville rotation.
Ardley Jansen, of
Jansen started the season out in Low-A Rome, but moved up to High-A Myrtle Beach during the season, and also spent a handful of games at Double-A Greenville as a fill-in during the latter part of the season. Known mainly for his defensive abilities, Jansen compiled a .260/.335/.381 line in 354 at-bats between the three stops. He doesn't hit for much power (9 HR), doesn't draw a ton of walks (109/35 K/BB ratio), and doesn't steal bases at an effective clip (9 SB, 6 CS), but the organization seems to like him enough. He is way down the pecking order as far as outfielders go in the system.
Charlie Morton, rhp -- Another mediocre year for Morton (4.82 ERA in 117 2/3 IP, 140 H, 102 SO, 68 IP), but I still think it is going to click for him one day.
Van Pope, 3b -- Promising start at Danville for the 2004 fifth rounder. He posted a .270/.333/.429 line in 233 at-bats, with five homers and a team leading 18 doubles.
Johan Silva, of -- Silva got his first taste of pro ball stateside this season for Orlando, and acclimated himself quite well. He led the team in walks (22) and OBP (.362) while hitting .273 with six homers in 172 at-bats. He joined Campbell in Rome for a late season taste of Low-A
Glenn Tucker, rhp -- Tucker was very impressive out of the Pelicans bullpen, posting a 1.64 ERA in 66 IP. He allowed 55 hits, fanned 56, and walked 26 in the process. He should move right up the ladder next season and be one of the top arms in the Greenville pen.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at September 20, 2004 06:30 AM
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Comments
Looking forward to the rest of the list. Would put JC Holt a bit higher.
Posted by: Henry at September 20, 2004 01:37 PM
You don't have to twist my arm very much on Holt. I like him a ton, but I would like to see a larger sample size before I move him up the charts. Plus, I'm a huge LSU homer, so I had to be sure not to let that cloud my judgement! ;-)
Posted by: Brad Dowdy at September 20, 2004 03:48 PM
This is going to be really fun. It is great to see the Top 50. I am glad to see Timmons and Bernard on the list; however, I think that Campbell belongs ahead of them. Young pitchers are probably the hardest to rate. I thought that Harrison might make the list as he pitched pretty well-especially during the second half of the season.
Posted by: Stephen at September 21, 2004 04:39 AM
Campbell was one I had a hard time leaving off the list. I imagine with any type of decent season next year he will be ahead of both of them. He certainly has a higher ceiling.
Posted by: Brad Dowdy at September 21, 2004 07:43 AM
I'm not expecting to see Brandon Jones in the Top 20, so I am a bit disappointed. I don't think the Braves gave him $225,000 for nothing.
I can't argue with your logic though. Good list.
Posted by: 50PoundHead at September 22, 2004 01:57 PM
I can definitely see the argument for having Jones in the Top 50. I think I was at the point where there were about 10 guys from the Danville roster that I wanted on the list, and couldn't find a way to fit them all in. He should have at least warranted a mention, so thanks for bringing him up.
Posted by: Brad Dowdy at September 22, 2004 04:52 PM
Any thoughts on Jose Ascaino? He put up some pretty good numbers as a 19 year old at Rome. On the other hand the fact that he is in the bullpen might indicate that the organization doesn't rate him that highly.
Posted by: Henry at September 23, 2004 11:12 AM
He had an excellent season for Rome following a solid stateside debut in the GCL last year. If he continues to improve next year in Myrtle Beach, he could make a little more noise in the organizational pecking order. Given his age and performance, I probably should have at least mentioned him as one to watch.
Posted by: Brad Dowdy at September 23, 2004 12:07 PM
Interesting that John Manuel said Ascanio was considered for the top 20 in the SAL and that his fastball touched 96-96 mph.
Posted by: Henry at September 29, 2004 02:03 PM
All in all this is a good report but we don't understand how Jose Capellan can be down at number 3 when he is already been called up to the major leagues. We also don't like the comment about changeing the nickname from braves to windmills!!!!!!!
Posted by: Nicole at October 3, 2004 04:57 PM