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November 29, 2004
They're very cheerful at WHO
WHO aide warns of avian flu pandemic
A worldwide bird flu pandemic among people is "very, very likely" and could kill millions of people, according to Dr. Shigeru Omi of the World Health Organization. And by "millions" I would be erring on the conservative side of his estimate:
"We are talking at least 2 to 7 million, maybe more - 20 million or 50 million, or in the worst case, 100" million, he said.
I'll have more on the subject after I stop whimpering under my desk...
Apparently, other experts had "discussed similar figures privately" but this is the first time one's said so in public. Another expert says that Omi's estimate is "realistic". It really depends upon bird flu mutating into a form which can be spread person to person, or more easily from bird to person, since it's already plenty lethal when caught. A scientist in Pittsburgh thinks that WHO is being far too conservative and the death toll could reach one billion. Back under the desk...
Posted by Mac Thomason at November 29, 2004 03:33 PM
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Comments
How would the population ratio work out compared to say, the Black Death in Europe? Would it be the same, greater, or less (percentage-wise)?
Posted by: Paul at November 29, 2004 05:56 PM
I think the Black Death is supposed to have killed one in three in Western Europe, though it missed a few areas entirely and in some places all but wiped out the human population. One billion out of six-something billion wouldn't be as high as that, but would clearly be the greatest catastrophe in human history.
Posted by: Mac Thomason at November 29, 2004 06:58 PM
I was just curious to see how it compared.
Posted by: Paul at November 29, 2004 07:21 PM
You mean in raw numbers? 25 million in Europe died of the Black Death, more (but numbers unknown) in Africa and Asia.
Posted by: Mac Thomason at November 29, 2004 07:37 PM
I meant percentage wise in relation to the total population affected.
It did help usher in the Rennaissance, so yay Black Death...I guess.
Posted by: Paul at November 30, 2004 02:14 AM
The highest number (one billion dead) would be something like 15 percent of the human race, no doubt higher in some areas, as opposed to 33 percent of the population of Europe. Most of the other numbers, which seem more reasonable, would put the death toll from mutated avian flu at 1 or 2 percent.
Posted by: Mac Thomason at November 30, 2004 08:45 AM
You know what? I bet some disease just comes out of nowhere and sucker punches us. It seems to be the way things work. Something gets hyped-up and receives all the focus, then BAM! We get cold-cocked by something else.
Posted by: Paul at November 30, 2004 01:57 PM