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December 08, 2005
ER
When you trade an elite prospect for a mediocre veteran, it means your dynasty is over the hill.
I don't think Andy Marte is ready for primetime yet. But probably by 2007 he'll be more valuable than Edgar Renteria, and he'll be much, much cheaper.
Neither David nor Mac is as sour on Renteria as I am. But I see this:
Year Age OPS
1999 23 .734
2000 24 .769
2001 25 .685
2002 26 .803
2003 27 .874
2004 28 .728
2005 29 .720
The only surprise here is the unusual severity of the post-peak drop-off... in 2004. But after a second year of the same performance, I see a trend, not a fluke.
Nor was 2005 a bust due simply to the league change. Renteria posted an .865 OPS in May and an .869 OPS in August. He didn't approach .700, let alone .800, in April, June, July, or September. That's not a transitional period; that's a bad year.
If ER puts offseason effort into making a splashy comeback, a year or two of .750 might ensue. But Wilson Betemit can do that too, and the defensive difference isn't nearly as great as you think. Renteria's career Fielding Runs Above Average (measured against other current shortstops) was -23--before his abysmal 2005, which was -21 all by itself. His progression, in the seasons listed above, was -14, 2, 10, -11, 2, -7, -21. Betemit was -6 last year, which in a full season would have been -18. Renteria might save ten runs over Betemit in 2006. Even if Betemit couldn't make that up with his bat, is ten runs in a season worth $6M and Andy Marte?
No. Bad trade. Terrible trade; Bagwell-for-Anderson flat-out awful. We'll regret it for a long time.
Posted by Andy Blumson at 11:06 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Edgar Renteria
Renteria to Braves
Edgar Renteria
Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte. I was hoping that Marte wouldn't be traded because he's going to be a big-time player, but I think we got a big-time player in return. Renteria had a bad season last year, probably because of the transition to the American League. Bringing him back to the National League should help him. Here's hoping he returns to his 2003 self.
Posted by David Lee at 04:43 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
December 07, 2005
Lance Cormier and Oscar Villareal
Ooh, two talented young power arms for Leo to... uh... er....
Well, they can't be any worse than last year's pen. They both have control issues, and Villareal is damaged goods, but they both strike guys out, and Cormier's HR rate last year was excellent, despite the BOB. And Estrada was trade-bait; I doubt he'll ever be an All-Star again. A solid trade by JS. We'll find out whether Roger McDowell can make it work.
Posted by Andy Blumson at 09:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Estrada for Two D'Back Pitchers
Johnny Estrada was traded to the Diamondbacks for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal. I kind of like this trade because we're getting solid, young talent for the bullpen. The only thing is I was expecting somebody who could make an immediate impact in the pen.
Cormier tore up the minor leagues but has yet to show anything in the Major Leagues. He has a ton of potential, though. Villarreal had a huge season when he was 21 years old, but for two years he has struggled greatly. Once he goes back to the 2003-version, he's going to be a great reliever/closer. There's a ton of potential in these two pitchers. It's just a matter of time.
Good luck to Johnny in Arizona. He was one of my favorites because of his ability to take so many hits and keep on going. I hope he can go back to his All-Star ability for the Diamondbacks.
Posted by David Lee at 03:41 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 04, 2005
Furcal and Farnsworth
Both gone. Two of the stupidest signings you will probably see this offseason.
Fearless predictions: Farnsworth will crack in New York and Furcal will get 13 DUI's before his contract ends. Oh, and he'll post the same average numbers for a leadoff hitter the rest of his life. Low OBP, too many strikeouts, and not nearly enough walks for $13 million a year.
Posted by David Lee at 05:10 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack